davin — Fri, 03/30/2012 - 11:57am
April is almost upon us and that means it's time for the 5th annual Summer Movie Showdown. Last year you will recall I pulled out a narrow victory, by just $33 million. When you consider that both of our line ups last year topped $1 billion dollars that's a difference of just 3 percent.
For those who are new to the showdown, Chad and I draft five summer movies (May-Aug) each. At the end of the summer we tally the grosses from our movies and compare totals. The highest gross wins. We have also started adding an extra "wildcard" pick that can replace any one of our five original picks.
Once again, I won the first pick this year by virtue of guessing closest to the opening weekend gross of Sherlock Holmes 2. We were both wildly off (since it opened horribly) by I was the more pessimistic so I ended up closer.
So here are the 2012 picks (the numbers are the overall order we picked them in):
1. The Dark Knight Returns -- Simple pick. The closest thing to a guaranteed $300 million.
3. Brave -- Pixar really failed me last summer with Cars 2. But I have always picked them and always won. Gotta be loyal.
5. Men in Black III -- At this point we're out of locks and into risks. But Will Smith in a summer blockbuster is usually worth $200 million.
7. Madagascar 3 -- The first kiddie movie of the summer usually is big.
9. Dark Shadows -- Total risk. Just hoping this is more Alice in Wonderland than Corpse Bride. Not optimistic. I'd settle for Sleepy Hollow money ($100 million.)
Wildcard: Ted -- Rather than go for a safe pick that could net me $100 million, I'm going for all or nothing. I'm guessing this will be a flop, but there are a LOT of people who like Seth MacFarlane's sense of humor.
2. Avengers -- A must pick. The Marvel movies have been on a downward trajectory, but if any flick was gonna reverse that trend, this might be it.
4. The Amazing Spider Man -- Kinda risky because the previous series is so fresh. But it's a blockbuster opening solo on July 4. That's worth a high pick.
6. Prometheus -- This could be a big Sci Fi hit or a cult classic in the making. I'm glad he picked it before me.
8. Snow White and the Huntsman -- I thought about picking this, but I worry whether any movie with Snow White in the title is gonna draw men. AOf course the way Hunger Games is playing out, maybe we don't need to worry about the dudes.
10. Ice Age 4 -- The series has been pretty productive, but recent kiddie sequels have also busted badly. And this is the third tent pole kiddie movie of the summer.
Wildcard: Expendables 2 -- I have no idea why Chad would pick this movie. The first one barely made $100. Of course last year he picked Hangover 2 and almost won. So I'll just shut up.